1945년 이후 美핵실험 1032회, 북한은 6회
71% 미국인들과 80% 넘는 대한민국 국민들은 지속적으로 북한과 대화, 외교를 지지해 왔습니다.
대북 강경론과 제제는 오직 북한이 미사일, 핵개발을 할 시간만 벌어 준다는 국제 전문가 분석입니다. 2017년은 한반도 평화를 위한 대 외교 장정, 가장 창조적인 외교를 추구하는 역사를 만들 수 있다고 봅니다.
미국 시민들, 평화 단체들, 유럽 평화 시민 단체등 한반도 평화 정착을 위한 대 국제 평화 운동을 꿈꾸워 봅시다! 절망이 있는 곳엔 희망을 만들어 내는 것이 우리의 임무라 생각합니다.
--시몬 천 드림
After a decade of sanctions, it is clear that economic incentives will not sway North Korea from their nuclear goals – we need diplomacy now. Security assurances from the U.S., not economic incentives, are likely to motivate North Korea. William Perry
Dear Friend—an update on the Korean peninsula. My apologies for a long reference. But, please kindly review them and raise public awareness.
According to an International Relation’s theory, Hegemonic Stability, the hegemon—in this case, the United States of America—has not only power but moral responsibility to do its best in maintaining order and security for the rest of world. Helps us to end the 67 years of Korean War! Peace is a common good.
•`Sanctions [are] not working but only give Pyongyang give time to master ballistic & nuclear programs’
•71% of Americans and more than 80% of people in South Korea support diplomacy and talks with North Korea
•Diplomacy is the Solution
1. # of nuclear tests since 1945
US: 1032
Russia: 715
France: 210
China: 45
UK: 45
N Korea:6
India: 3
Pakistan: 2
2. RT `Sanctions not working but only give Pyongyang give time to master ballistic & nuclear programs’
“Seventy-one percent of Americans, whether Republican or Democrat support diplomacy, as well as over 80 percent of South Koreans support diplomacy,” Chun pointed out, underlining that the “most important variable will be public pressure...Those people who support diplomacy who have patiently waited for sanctions to work, they are going to say, ‘enough is enough’, it is time to try diplomacy...I also think that there is great public and also international pressure for diplomacy. Russia and China strong support the 'double freeze.' And I think this is a very viable approach. Chun also explained that sanctions have so far done nothing to halt Pyongyang's nuclear development, and that it's time for a “policy change” in Washington.
“Sanctions have not worked, they are not going to work, and it will just give them [N. Korea] more time to master its existing ballistic and nuclear programs,” Chun told RT.
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/403390-north-korea-sanctions-diplomacy/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=disc1lfHOeo&feature=youtu.be
3. Tim Shorrock. The Nation. Diplomacy with North Korea Has Worked Before, and Can Work Again
At some point, the United States is going to have to sit down with Kim’s representatives and seek to hammer something out that will put the North on the path to denuclearization—or accept it as a nuclear power and seek to temper its program.
https://www.thenation.com/article/diplomacy-with-north-korea-has-worked-before-and-can-work-again/
4. Jon wolfsthal. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The United States Should Talk to North Korea
At a minimum, the United States needs to initiate military-to-military talks with North Korea as soon as possible. North Korea is the only country on the planet with nuclear weapons that we do not engage at a military-to-military level. Chinese, Russian, even Pakistani military leaders talk with our Joint Chiefs regularly and have the means to communicate quickly in a crisis. Not having such a proven and tested link with North Korea is now as close to security negligence as you can get. But it would not be the first time such talks opened doors to other types of diplomatic engagement that can lead to other unexpected breakthroughs. Talks with Russian leaders in the 1980s led to important, ongoing arms control agreements. Any opportunity to convince North Korea to restrain its nuclear and missile programs would be an important chance that America must pursue, if for no other reason than the fact that showing the impossibility of such dialogue would make it easier to explain why China and others must do more to constrain the flow of funds and support to the North.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/09/07/united-states-should-talk-to-north-korea-pub-73043
5. S. Korea Adviser: United States could have spent more time in diplomacy with North Korea. President Moon 'agonizing' over N. Korea http://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2017/09/06/amanpour-interview-south-korea-chung-in-moon.cnn
6. Why sanctions may harm North Korea’s burgeoning market reforms.
Domestic efforts to liberalize the economy should be encouraged, not punished.
Joint-ventures and the attraction of FDI are formidable tools for developing companies to capitalize on their comparative advantages and benefit from more advanced technologies. Although one might argue, with reason, that dual-use technologies can contribute to the North’s ballistic and nuclear programs, the very low-valued added sectors in which North Korean manufacturing specializes makes this extremely unlikely.
https://www.nknews.org/2017/09/why-sanctions-may-harm-north-koreas-burgeoning-market-reforms/
7. 82% of Americans fear nuclear war with North Korea
· Diplomacy favored: Sizable majorities in both parties (82% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans) favor exhausting all diplomatic options in order to avoid war, and even bigger majorities (90% of Democrats, 80% of Republicans) support direct talks with North Korea before military action.
https://www.axios.com/poll-majority-prefers-diplomatic-action-on-north-korea-2471523105.html
8. Arms Control Association. 5 Myths on Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea
Past negotiations with North Korea are frequently dismissed as a failure, but diplomacy with North Korea has worked in the past to stem its nuclear activities and can work in the future.
https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2017-08-21/5-myths-nuclear-diplomacy-north-korea
9. #TimeToTalkWithNorthKorea
Arms Control Association. Take Action: It’s Time to Talk with North Korea
Join us in calling for direct U.S.-North Korean talks by adding your name below and letting Congress know its #TimeToTalk with North Korea
https://www.armscontrol.org/take-action/time-to-talk-with-north-korea?utm_content=buffer3865e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
10. RootsAction. Diplomacy, Not Threats, Toward North Korea
U.S. threats toward North Korea are threats to all of us.
Please help ease tensions.
Click below to email your Representative and two Senators, with a "cc" to the White House.
Feel free to edit and personalize the message.
https://act.rootsaction.org/p/dia/action4/common/public/?action_KEY=13021
https://act.rootsaction.org/p/dia/action4/common/public/?action_KEY=12872
11. CNN. Amid Crisis, worries rift
"The first thing we need to do is to cool down the rhetoric against our main ally in the region, South Korea," said Bill Richardson, the former New Mexico governor and US ambassador to the United Nations. "We shouldn't threaten abolishing the free trade agreement, the appeasement talk. This is the way the South Korean president was elected. He wanted a dialogue with North Korea, try to stamp out corruption, so this is his own internal politics. I think we have to stand behind South Korea."
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/04/politics/donald-trump-south-korea/index.html
12. DPRK Nuclear Threat Talking Points
1. Need for a new, more effective approach
A smart combination of diplomacy and pressure would be far more effective.
2. Diplomatic engagement can curb the DPRK’s nuclear program
It’s a myth that diplomacy can’t work with North Korea. North Korea agreed in 1994 to stop producing plutonium for weapons. It also agreed to a missile flight test moratorium that lasted from 1998 to 2006. It is much further from its desired capabilities because of those two agreements.
There is a growing chorus of supporters for talks with North Korea to achieve a diplomatic solution, including former Secretaries of Defense Robert Gates and William Perry, former Directors of National Intelligence John Negroponte and James Clapper, and Richard Haas, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior official in the Bush administration. The American people strongly agree on the need to pursue effective direct diplomacy with North Korea and to avoid a war with North Korea.
3. What’s the best course of action?
Engage in diplomacy.
direct diplomacy with North Korea.
Cap, then reverse.
a halt on new capabilities is essential at the start.
Maintain international pressure.
Create Incentives.
Options include replacing command post exercises with seminars that serve the same training purpose, dialing down the strategic messaging of exercises, spreading out field training exercises to smaller levels, and moving exercises away from the demilitarized zone on the border.
4. Other options are riskier and have a lower chance of success
· Beijing is a key part of a peaceful resolution to the current crisis, but the North Korean problem cannot be outsourced to China. China will not implement sanctions that it believes could lead to the collapse of the North Korean regime since it prioritizes a stable North Korea over denuclearization.
· Missile interceptors – whether shorter-range systems such as THAAD in South Korea, or strategic ballistic missile interceptors based in the United States – cannot effectively counter North Korean missiles Even with further testing, these systems are not foolproof and can be overwhelmed with larger numbers of more sophisticated North Korean ballistic missiles. Deployment of costly U.S. strategic missile interceptors can also prompt China and Russia to maintain larger numbers of their own nuclear-armed, long-range ballistic missiles to deter the United States.
· Military strikes are not a viable option. We cannot locate, much less eliminate, all of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, materials, and facilities. Also, such strikes would provoke a strong military response from North Korea that could trigger a catastrophic, second Korean War that would result in tens of millions of deaths and casualties in Korea and Japan, economic devastation, and threaten the 28,000 U.S. soldiers stationed in South Korea.
13. Loud and Clear. South Korea Forms Decapitation Unit to Kill Kim Jing Un
In the third segment, the hosts talk to Korean Policy Institute fellow Dr. Simone Chun and international criminal lawyer Christopher Black about reports that the South Korean government has established a “decapitation squad” to kill North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/south-korea-forms-decapitation-unit-to-k?utm_medium=widget&utm_source=user%3A8544886&utm_term=episode_title
14. Reuters. Merkel suggests Iran-style nuclear talks to end North Korea crisis
“If our participation in talks is desired, I will immediately say yes,” Merkel told Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung in an interview to be published on Sunday. She pointed to negotiations that led to a landmark nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers in 2015. Back then, Germany and the five countries on the United Nations Security Council with veto power took part in talks that led to Iran agreeing to curb its nuclear work in return for the lifting of most sanctions. “I could imagine such a format being used to end the North Korea conflict. Europe and especially Germany should be prepared to play a very active part in that,” Merkel added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-germany/merkel-suggests-iran-style-nuclear-talks-to-end-north-korea-crisis-idUSKCN1BK0WU?il=0
15. William Perry. Diplomacy Is the Solution
After a decade of sanctions, it is clear that economic incentives will not sway North Korea from their nuclear goals – we need diplomacy now. Security assurances from the U.S., not economic incentives, are likely to motivate North Korea. https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2017-08-15/north-koreas-nuclear-ambition-can-be-stopped-with-diplomacy
16. David Kang. NPR. How Would President Trump’s Trade Response to North Korea Work?
2:13 “US administrations should stop making empty threats”
North Korea is not a problem we can solve. It is a country that we are going to learn to live with….not going to collapse…not going to go away. Focusing so much on threats, getting North Korea to rearming itself. Deterrence works. They are not going to attack first. ..so far only tests. They are not intending to use…Sanctions and firm talks are fine for domestic consumption,
http://www.npr.org/2017/09/04/548505762/how-would-president-trumps-trade-response-to-north-korea-work
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